Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14-4) vs Los Angeles Rams (13-5)
Sunday, January 23, 2022 at 3:00 pm
At 3 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the points over the Los Angeles Rams. We played on the Bucs here, at home, to end the regular season. Tampa was a big home favorite vs. Carolina in that game, and in my analysis, I pointed out how the Buccaneers had played much worse on the road this season than at home. And that's generally to be expected with defending Super Bowl champions, as they tend to mightily struggle on the road. And these home/road splits carry forward into the Playoffs for defending Super Bowl champs, as they've gone 16-12-1 ATS at home, but just 7-9 ATS on the road. The good news for the Bucs is this Playoff game is at home. And Tampa's gone 7-2 ATS at home this season, and has covered the spread in those nine home games by a super 6.11 ppg. In contrast, the Bucs were 3-6 ATS away from home (including a 34-24 upset loss to these Rams), and failed to cover the spread by -4.33 ppg (for a +10.44 relative home/road point spread differential). Meanwhile, the Rams also performed better at home this season than on the road, and they failed to cover the spread away from home by -0.33 ppg. None of this bodes well for Los Angeles in this road game. And nor does the fact that Tom Brady's teams have gone 17-8 ATS in his career when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including 9-1 ATS if they lost that earlier game by 10+ points. Take Tampa Bay. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.