THURSDAY MLB EARLY BIRD

Chicago Cubs (50-53) vs Cincinnati Reds (53-49)

Thursday, July 29, 2021 at 2:20 pm

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I get the case that could be made for a home dog in most spots, but not for me here. The Reds are playing the better baseball by a mile right now and they’ve flat out owned the rest of the division recently, winning 19 of their last 27 division games. Not only that, Luis Castillo starts here for the Reds and while I bashed him early on (for good reason), he’s been a completely different pitcher in the last two months, giving up no more than three runs in any of his last ten starts over that stretch and allowing two earned runs or less in 8 of the 10. This is the Luis Castillo I was expecting from the beginning. Alec Mills has been a capable arm for the Cubs, but they’ve lost five of his last six starts. The Cubs are also hitting just .224 over their last ten games and while the number goes up to .253 in their last five, the Reds are hitting a scorching .301 over their last five games. I think Castillo puts the Reds in a good spot early and we get a nice early payday from the Reds on the money line here.

Chris’s Pick Cincinnati Reds: -125

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