JEFF'S #1 FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAME OF WEEK

Syracuse has been better than average on both sides of the ball this season, rating 0.2 yards per play better than average offensively (6.7 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.5 yards per play to a mediocre attack) and 0.7 yards per play better than average defensively (3.6 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 4.3 yards per play against a mediocre stop unit). Syracuse possesses one of the best defenses in the ACC this season behind ten returning starters and second-year defensive coordinator Tony White (coached under Rocky Long for ten years) is doing an excellent job maximizing the talent on hand. The Orange rank 25th in the nation in both scoring defense and total defense, and are 32nd in third-down conversion defense and 33rd in red-zone defense. White's unit has held its last two opponents to under 200 total yards, including limiting Albany to just 135 yards in last week's 62-24 win. Syracuse easily covered the Vegas number as a 22-point favorite and sacked Albany's quarterbacks eight times. The Orange defense held the Great Danes to two first downs and 67 yards in the first 30 minutes. Syracuse has fielded one of the nation's best special teams units for four consecutive years, ranking sixth or better in special teams S&P. Despite losing coordinator Justin Long, the Orange return everyone from last year's unit and will once again finish with one of college football's best special teams units. From a technical standpoint, Syracuse falls into a profitable 61-24 ATS system of mine that invests on certain teams averaging 4.8 or more yards per game following a game in which their defense yielded 100 or fewer yards on the ground. The Orange are 27-9 ATS at home following a game in which they outrushed their opponent by 125 or more yards and 17-3 ATS at home after rushing for 275 or more yards in their previous contest. My math model only favors Liberty by 4.03 points in this game and the Orange are much healthier this time around than during last year's 38-21 loss to the Flames. Meanwhile, Liberty is traveling for the second time in three weeks and has another road game on deck. The Flames could also be missing two starting wide receivers in DJ Stubbs and Javian LoftonGrab. Grab the points with the live home underdog and invest with confidence.