JEFF'S ULTRA-RARE SEC GAME OF THE MONTH

LSU is one of the least-experienced teams in the nation (102nd in returning production; 69%) and has been dealing with a host of injuries and off-the-field issues. Starting left tackle Cam Wire has not played since suffering a knee injury in the Tigers' season-opening loss to UCLA. Head coach Ed Orgeron confirmed that Wire has not practiced this week and is doubtful to play on Saturday against Mississippi State. Senior right tackle Austin Deculus is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury, raising the prospects that the Tigers could be down two starting offensive linemen for their SEC opener in Starkville. LSU also recently lost running back John Emery Jr. for the season due to academic issues. Emery started three games last season and led all LSU backs with fourteen catches in 2020. The Tigers' defense has also suffered attrition. Starting defensive end Andre Anthony, a sixth-year senior who had four tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks through three games, sustained a season-ending knee injury last week against Central Michigan. The Tigers have also been without defensive lineman Ali Gaye. Mississippi State enters off a grossly misleading 31-29 loss to Memphis in which the Bulldogs finished with an overwhelming 26-12 first down advantage and a substantial 468-246 total yard edge. Memphis benefitted from a 49-yard fumble return touchdown and a questionable 94-yard punt return touchdown that resulted from two officiating mistakes. The SEC issued a tweet stating that the punt return should have been reviewed after the back judge, part of an SEC officiating crew, had signaled to stop the clock when the punted ball stopped moving. The signal apparently went unseen. The SEC statement also said that two Memphis players were wearing No. 4 during the play, which should have resulted in a 5-yard penalty on the Tigers. Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers completed 50 of 67 passes for 419 yards and three touchdowns in last week's loss (the Bulldogs rank 7th in the nation in passing offense and 6th in red-zone offense). However, Mississippi State's strength is on the defensive side of the ball where the Bulldogs have been 2.4 yards per rush attempt and 1.7 yards per pass attempt better than average. The Bulldogs possess one of the best defensive backfields in the nation and should have success containing an LSU attack that has been 0.5 yards per play better than average from the line of scrimmage. Overall, Mississippi State's defense has been 1.7 yards per play better than average from the line of scrimmage in 2021 (5.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.7 yards per play against a mediocre defense). Finally, my math model actually favors Mississippi State in this game but the betting market has overreacted to the team's disparate results from last week. Grab the points with the live home underdog and invest with confidence.