UCLA Bruins (4-0) vs Washington Huskies (4-0)

Friday, September 30, 2022 at 10:30 pm

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Washington is 4-0 this season and is traveling for the first time after starting the season with four consecutive home games. The Huskies enter off a misleading 40-22 win over Stanford in which the Cardinal committed three turnovers (lost 11.5 points based on turnover luck). Washington recorded just two sacks on third or fourth down, downs in which Stanford averaged 5.4 yards per play with a decent 43% success rate. The Huskies rank 91st in success rate allowed on third-and-long and 79th on third-and-medium. Washington is just 4-10 ATS against conference opponents over the past two seasons and 1-9 SU and 2-7 ATS in its previous nine trips to the Rose Bowl. Overall, UCLA has won 11 of the past 15 meetings in this series and is coming off a dominating 45-17 win over Colorado where quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson threw for 234 yards and two touchdowns. UCLA has been extremely efficient on both sides of the ball, ranking 19th in points per drive and 26th in points allowed. The Bruins have the nation’s 22nd-best defensive grade (85.9), per Pro Football Focus (PFF), and boast an elite run defense ranked 15th per PFF (87.5). UCLA also possesses a top-25 pass rush (77.5 per PFF) behind edge defender Laiatu Latu, who recorded 3.5 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 1 pass break-up and 1 forced fumble against Colorado last week. Overall, Latu boasts an elite 89.5 pass rush grade via PFF, followed closely by edge rushers Grayson Murphy (85.4) and Gabriel Murphy (82.9). My math model only favors Washington by 0.33 points in this Friday night affair and the Bruins are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Huskies. Grab the points with UCLA and invest with confidence.

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Jeff’s Pick UCLA Bruins: +3 -115

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