JEFF'S NCAA FOOTBALL BIG 12 GAME OF MONTH

Baylor enters off its worst offensive performance since 2020, recording season lows in points (3) and rushing yards (103) in last week’s 31-3 loss to Kansas State. Meanwhile, TCU kept its College Football Playoff dreams alive with a physical 17-10 win over Texas in which the Longhorns were held to just 3.3 yards per play. Those disparate results provide value on a Baylor squad that is 48-24 ATS in its last 72 games versus .501 or greater opposition (22-8 ATS L/29) and 21-1 ATS in its last 22 games as a conference underdog versus teams off a SU and ATS win. The Bears have covered 11 of their last 15 games as home underdogs dating back to the 2011 season, whereas TCU is 2-12 ATS after clashing with the Longhorns. Baylor’s potent ground attack matches up well against TCU’s front seven. The Bears are ranked 23rd in Rushing Success Rate, 16th in EPA/Rush and 49th in Explosiveness Rush percentage, while their offensive line is 34th in Offensive Line Yards and 58th in Defensive Line Havoc Allowed. TCU’s defense is 63rd in yards per rush attempt, while its defensive line is 85th in Offensive Line Yards Allowed, 110th in tackles for loss and 106th in Havoc. The Horned Frogs' biggest weakness is their inability to prevent big plays, ranking 104th in Explosive Rush percentage Allowed and 121st in Explosive Pass percentage Allowed. TCU is three wins away from a CFP berth and the pressure continues to mount on the Horned Frogs. Since 1980, undefeated college football road teams from Game Ten out are 133-50-1 SU and 77-95-2 ATS, including 63-77-2 ATS as conference road favorites and 50-70-2 ATS when favored by less than 28 points. If these pressure cookers were not favored by more than five points in their previous game, they plummet to 2-17 ATS under these circumstances. Finally, Baylor is 13-1 ATS as a conference underdog with revenge versus opponents coming off a SU and ATS win, including a perfect 8-0 ATS at home. Grab the points with Baylor and invest with confidence.