JEFF'S NCAA FOOTBALL PAC-12 GAME OF YEAR

This game was poised to be the first top-10 matchup between USC and UCLA since 1988 before the Bruins were upset by Arizona 34-28 last week. However, this rivalry still carries a lot of meaning for both teams. A win for USC secures a spot in the Pac-12 championship game and keeps its College Football Playoff hopes alive. A win for UCLA would effectively end the Trojans’ CFP dreams, while simultaneously preserving a chance to play for the Pac-12 title. Let’s also note that UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson has not forgotten the last time USC beat the Bruins at the Rose Bowl - USC players allegedly “cursed” at them and “flipped them off.” From a technical standpoint, USC falls into a very negative 8-34 ATS system that invests against certain road teams priced between +3 and -3 that are averaging 34 or more points per game following a contest in which at least 60 total points were scored. This situation has failed to cover the spread by an average of 8.5 points per game over the last five seasons and is 4-16 ATS since the start of the 2018 campaign. USC head coach Lincoln Riley is 6-14 as a conference road favorite in his career, including 1-9 ATS versus opponents coming off a loss by six or more points. Since 2016, USC is just 1-6 ATS in games priced between +3 and -3. In contrast, the Bruins are 11-5 ATS as home underdogs since 1990, including 5-0 ATS versus opponents they defeated in the most recent meeting. Finally, UCLA has better yards per point and yards per game margins and has played a more difficult conference schedule. With UCLA standing at 4-1 ATS off a loss since the start of last season, grab the points with the live home underdog and invest with confidence.