JEFF'S NCAA FOOTBALL SEC GAME OF THE WEEK

My math model only favors Arkansas by 2.6 points in this game and the Razorbacks fall into a very negative 36-78 ATS system that invests against teams off a game in which they allowed 6.25 or more yards per play versus teams entering off a game in which they outgained their opponent by 175 or more yards. This situation has covered the spread by an average of 5.4 points per game over the last ten seasons. Missouri is playing for bowl eligibility after destroying New Mexico State last week (45-14) and catches an Arkansas squad traveling for the first time since October 29 and coming off physical affairs against LSU and Mississippi. Arkansas’ run-heavy attack will struggle to move the chains against one of the nation’s best run defenses. Missouri’s stop unit is ranked 15th in Rush Success Rate, 22nd in yards per rush play and 32nd in Explosive Rush Percentage. The Tigers’ defensive line ranks 7th in Defensive Line Yards, 6th in Defensive Line Havoc, 2nd in Tackles for Loss and should dominate the line of scrimmage against a mediocre Arkansas offensive line: Arkansas’ Offensive Line Metrics – 2022 • 65th in Offensive Line Yards • 99th in Defensive Line Havoc Allowed • 74th in sacks allowed The Razorbacks’ offense relies on explosive plays – 19th in Explosive Rush Percentage and 15th in Explosive Pass Percentage – but Missouri does an excellent job preventing big plays, ranking 32nd in Explosive Rush Percentage Allowed and 11th in Pass Explosiveness Allowed. Overall, Missouri’s defense ranks 8th in Success Rate, 9th in Standard Down Success Rate, 12th in yards per play, and 32nd in Points Per Opportunity. Missouri has the better yards per play margin and the Razorbacks are just 11-25 ATS as road favorites since 1992. Finally, five of Missouri’s SEC games have been decided by seven points or less so grab the points with the Tigers and invest with confidence.