San Francisco Giants (40-25) vs Arizona Diamondbacks (20-46)
Monday, June 14, 2021 at 9:45 pm
San Francisco southpaw Alex Wood is having a solid campaign, posting a 3.79 ERA, 4.01 FIP, and 3.59 xFIP in ten starts (57.0 IP). The 30-year-old does an excellent job keeping the ball on the ground (55.9% GB%) and batters are not making solid contact against him (26.6% Hard%). Wood should have another strong outgoing against an Arizona squad that is a money-burning 8-25 in its last 33 games versus a left-handed starter and 13-41 in its last 54 road affairs. The Diamondbacks have lost nineteen consecutive road games (3-15-1 against the run line) and ten straight games overall (2-8 against the run line). Arizona has not won a game away from home since April 25 and is 2-24 in its previous 26 games overall. Let's also note that the Diamondbacks have dropped 11 of their last 12 series openers. In contrast, the Giants are a profitable 21-6 in their last 27 games as home favorites, 21-8 in its last 29 games off a loss, and 13-3 in game 1 of a series. San Francisco falls into a very strong 50-4 system of mine that is a profitable 31-8 (80%) against the run line for a net profit exceeding +70%. Arizona right-hander Matt Peacock was selected in the 23rd round of the 2017 Draft and is a projected middle reliever with pedestrian offerings. The 27-year-old induces a high percentage of groundballs (68% rate in 2019) due to a decent sinker but his slider and changeup both grade out as being mediocre. Wood is supported by a strong San Francisco bullpen that is ranked 6th in the league in ERA (3.38), whereas Arizona relievers enter tonight's game with a 4.62 ERA (22nd) and a -0.2 WAR (27th). Arizona batters have the second-worst batting average in the majors in road affairs (.205), the third-highest number of strikeouts (348), and the fifth-worst OBP (.289). Take the Giants and invest with confidence.