JEFF'S 25-2 AMERICAN LEAGUE HIGH ROLLER

Houston suffered a significant loss to its starting rotation when Lance McCullers was left off the ALCS roster because of forearm discomfort.  Fellow starter Luis Garcia exited Game 2 with a knee injury so a lot of pressure has been placed on the shoulders of right-hander Jose Urquidy.  The 26-year-old made two trips to the IL with shoulder discomfort this season but has been one of the more underrated pitchers in the American League.  Urquidy toes the rubber with a 3.62 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 20 starts in 2021, a span covering 107.0 innings of work.   However, his underlying metrics are not as strong - 4.14 FIP, 4.38 xFIP and a 4.27 SIERA, together with a pedestrian 7.57 K/9 rate. Urquidy has been surviving on an unsustainable .237 BABIP (.290 league average) and has been susceptible to the long ball (1.43 HR/9).  Boston posted the best offense against right-handed pitching after the All-Star break (123 wRC+) and ranked first against sliders and third against changeups.  Boston's trade deadline acquisition of Kyle Schwarber could not be better against a Houston pitching staff loaded with righties.   The day the Red Sox acquired Schwarber, the team had a .760 OPS for the season against right-handed pitchers; after the trade, Boston posted an .839 OPS versus righties.  The Astros went into the ALDS with only two left-handed pitchers on the roster: Framber Valdez and Brooks Raley.  The Red Sox scored the fifth-most runs and boasted the second-highest slugging percentage during the regular season. Boston southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched better than his 4.74 ERA suggests.  The 28-year-old has been hampered by an unlucky strand rate (68.9%) and BABIP (.363).  Rodriguez's skill set is more in line with his 3.55 xERA, 3.32 FIP and 3.43 xFIP.  From a technical standpoint, Boston is 16-2 since August 5, 2010, in game 2 (or beyond) of a series as a favorite of less than -200 following a game in which the final margin was five runs or fewer.  This trend was 100% perfect this season and is 5-1 since May 7, 2019.   The Red Sox are 25-2 since 2012, as favorites of -130 or less following a game as underdogs in which they scored multiple runs in two or more separate innings.  Take Boston and invest with confidence.