JEFF'S ONE & ONLY NFL UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH

Washington arrives off a huge upset win over the previously undefeated Eagles on Monday Night Football and now travels for the second consecutive week to face one of the worst teams in the NFL. Since 1994, teams coming off a win as a double-digit underdog are 2-10 ATS in the following game when playing on short rest. Since 1983, NFL teams with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 off an upset win as double-digit underdogs are just 2-21 ATS, failing to cover the spread by an average of 6.3 points per game. These teams are 0-4 ATS since 2012. The Texans return home off a misleading 24-16 loss to New York in which they outgained the Giants in both yards per play and total yards. Houston’s inefficiencies in the game’s most critical scenarios - third downs, redzone and turnover differential, dictated the final score. Those three categories are highly variable weekly and should regress to the mean moving forward. Houston is an underdog for the sixteenth consecutive week (longest active streak in the NFL) and is the only team to be an underdog in every game this season. That futility provides value as teams with a win percentage of .150 or worse in Games 9 to 12 are a profitable 80-58-3 ATS (58%) over the last 20 years. Houston’s offense has a favorable matchup on the ground against a below-average Washington run defense (59.6 Pro Football Focus Run Defense grade). Houston running back Dameon Pierce’s Offensive Rookie of the Year candidacy remains strong after finishing with 122 scrimmage yards last week (898 scrimmage yards on the season). Quarterback Davis Mills averaged 7.0 yards per pass play against New York with wide receivers Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks back on the field and the Commanders’ pass defense is 2.5 points per game worse than the Giants. Let’s also note that the Texans’ early-down Offensive EPA/Play ranks seventh in the NFL over the past two weeks. The Texans fall into a powerful 41-12 ATS contrarian system that invests on underdogs (or pick) that have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games versus opponents that have covered the spread in three of their previous four contests. This situation is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season and 25-7 ATS since 2018. Since 2007, teams off an upset win as underdogs of more than three points in which their opponent committed four or more turnovers are just 35-57 ATS (38%), including 0-6 ATS in their last six under these circumstances. Grab the inflated number with Houston and invest with confidence.