Sean's CFB ON FOX LATE AFTERNOON O/U ROUT >> 68-51-1 YTD!

My selection is on the 'under' between Fresno State and Boise State at 4 pm et on Saturday.

I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting on Saturday afternoon as Fresno State battles Boise State for the Mountain West Conference championship. Fresno State has been building toward this game, seemingly improving defensively with each passing week, going from 30 points allowed against UNLV on November 11th to just 14 and 0 over the next two games against Nevada and Wyoming, respectively. Boise State did put up 42 points in last week's rout of Utah State but it isn't the offensive juggernaut it once was. You can be sure the Broncos will exercise some caution offensively here as Fresno State has been very opportunistic on defense, collecting five turnovers in the last two games combined and 11 over its last five contests. Noting that Boise State has completed more than 20 passes only twice in 12 games this season, topping out at 34 pass attempts over its last 11 games, it's unlikely we'll see the Broncos slinging it all over the field here. It's a different story for the Jake Haener-led Fresno State offense as it is pass-happy to say the least. With that being said, Boise State should match up well in that regard, noting that it has allowed 20+ pass completions and 300+ passing yards only twice this season, including last week against Utah State in a game where the Aggies could muster 'only' 23 points. The first meeting between these two teams totalled 60 points in a Boise State blowout earlier this season. I do think the Bulldogs have improved defensively since then and a more tightly-contested affair should lend itself to a lower-scoring contest as well this time around. Considering the closing total for that first matchup was 45.5, the case can certainly be made that we're working with an inflated number here. Take the under (8*).