UAB Blazers (28-9) vs Utah Valley Wolverines (28-8)
Tuesday, March 28, 2023 at 9:30 pm
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah Valley and UAB at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday.
We missed with the 'over' in Utah Valley's 'upset' win over Cincinnati in the quarter-final round of the NIT last week as that contest stayed just 'under' the total thanks to a miserable shooting performance from the Bearcats (27-of-79 from the field). I think it's notable that the Wolverines allowed Cincinnati to hoist up just shy of 80 field goal attempts in that game. They figure to face a similar up-tempo approach from UAB here, noting that the Blazers have gotten off 63, 71, 66 and 64 FG attempts over their last four games yet somehow all four of those contests stayed 'under' the total, only serving to provide us with a reasonably-priced total here. In fact, UAB ranks 32nd in the nation in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom, just 10 spots ahead of Utah Valley. The Blazers have allowed each of their last five opponents to get off at least 60 FG attempts and Utah Valley is well-positioned to take advantage. The Wolverines have knocked down 27, 28, 40, 26, 31, 34, 33 and 25 field goals over their last eight contests with the two outliers coming in games where they still scored 72 and 74 points. Utah Valley comes off that 'under' result against Cincinnati but hasn't posted consecutive 'unders' over its last six contests. Take the over (10*).