San Diego Padres (12-3) vs Colorado Rockies (3-11)
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 4:10 pm
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Colorado and San Diego at 4:10 pm et on Sunday.
We missed with the ‘over’ last night as San Diego once again blanked Colorado, but I expect a different tone in Sunday’s series finale. The Rockies had actually been swinging the bats well prior to arriving in San Diego and should be primed for some positive regression at the plate.
They’ll face Michael King, who despite an excellent 2024 season, has struggled to settle in early in 2025. King has allowed 22 of 62 batters faced to reach base through his first three starts, compiling a 4.34 FIP and 1.58 WHIP. Current Rockies hitters have had success against him, going 8-for-27 (.296) with a .943 OPS.
Colorado counters with Kyle Freeland, who has posted solid numbers so far this year, but we’re not buying into the early season surge. Freeland is a career 4.59 FIP, 1.41 WHIP pitcher and has historically struggled against the Padres. Current San Diego batters are 34-for-105 (.324) with a .884 OPS off of him.
With a warmer afternoon weather forecast and a slight breeze blowing across the outfield, expect the bats to finally come to life. The pitching matchup, recent trends, and history between hitters and starters all point toward value on the high side.
Take the ‘over’. Projected score: Padres 7, Rockies 4.
Sean’s Pick Over: 7 -109
AUTHOR: Sean Murphy
