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60-35 RUN >> NBA FINALS GAME 5 O/U SMASH!

Premium Pick Loss

Boston Celtics (79-21) vs Dallas Mavericks (63-40)

Monday, June 17, 2024 at 8:30 pm

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My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

I like the way this play sets up on Monday. The oddsmakers have been steadily dropping the total throughout this series and so far it hasn't done a thing to change the result as all four games have stayed 'under' the total. I believe they've made too much of an adjustment in advance of Game 5, however.

Note that the 'over' is a perfect 8-0 in Mavericks games with the total set between 200 and 209.5 points this season. I do think the Mavs figured a few things out in their Game 4 blowout victory at home as they finally pushed the pace and were rewarded with their highest scoring performance since Game 5 of the opening round against the Clippers.

I do think we'll see a big response from the Celtics offense after they were held to a putrid 29 made field goals in Game 4. Note that the 'over' is 13-4 with Boston seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season. The 'over' is also 3-0 with the Celtics coming off five straight 'under' results over the last three seasons, as is the case here.

Remember, the two regular season matchups between these two teams produced 229 and 248 total points. I still think this matchup can produce a track meet (where both teams participate) but we're obviously running out of runway in this series. Tonight is the night. Take the over (10*).

Sean’s Pick Over: 209.5 -108

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