Tampa Bay Lightning (53-26-8) vs Toronto Maple Leafs (57-23-7)
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 7:30 pm
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.
We've yet to see a team register consecutive wins in this series and I don't think that changes here as the Lightning face elimination on home ice. Note that Toronto is just 8-13 when playing on the road after scoring 3+ goals in four consecutive games over the last two seasons, allowing 3.9 goals per game and outscored by 0.3 goals on average in that situation. They've also gone just 8-12 when coming off a home win by one goal over that same stretch. Meanwhile, the Lightning check in an incredible 14-1 when playing at home after losing two of their last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.9 goals on average. They've also gone 24-5 when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent over the same stretch, averaging 3.7 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by 1.6 goals on average in that spot. Take Tampa Bay (6*).