Dallas Stars (48-33-6) vs Calgary Flames (53-23-11)
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 9:30 pm
My selection is on Dallas +1.5 goals over Calgary at 9:30 pm et on Friday.
We've won with the Flames in each of the last two games. While I'm still confident they'll win this series, I'm not sure it will come easy. Note that the Stars have certainly been a 'tough out' at home this season, going 28-15 while outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals on average. Using a long-term 125-game sample size, Dallas has outscored the opposition by 0.3 goals on average when playing at home seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent, as is the case here. As we've noted previously in this series, the Flames are just 6-20 the last 26 times they've led a playoff series, averaging just 2.2 goals per game and outscored by 0.6 goals on average in that situation. Take Dallas +1.5 goals (3*).