MLB- Best of the Day -Runline Smash

LA Dodgers (24-13) vs Miami Marlins (10-27)

Wednesday, May 08, 2024 at 3:10 pm

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Miamis starter Weathers has faltered of late losing his L/.3 starts while garnering a 6.89 ERA. All three losses came by two or more runs.  The Marlins southpaws most recent appearance vs the Dodgers came last season in a 4-0 loss. Im betting hes in trouble vs a Dodgers team that is averaging 5.8 rpg at home on the season.  Meanwhile, the Dodgers starter Gavin Stone owns a   2.20 ERA in his L/3 starts with his team winning 2 of those tilts. He has garnered a 2.90 ERA on the season and according to my projections gives the Dodgers the pitching edge.  

The Dodgers won the first game of this series by a 6-3 count and followed that up with a 8-2 win yesterday and Im betting on another 2+ run victory here today. 

Dodgers have won 6 straight games with 5 of those games coming +2 runs.  Miami has lost 4 of their L/5 with 4 of those tilts seeing losses of +2 runs . 

MIAMI is 5-21  against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season with the average rpg diff clicking in at -2.  MIAMI is 33-91  against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season  with the average rpg diff clicking in at -2. 

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (MIAMI) - bad offensive team (3.8 or less runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or better ) (NL), with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games are 1-36 L/5 seasons for go against 97% conversion rate for bettors with the average rpg diff registering at -3.5 which easily qualifies on this run-line offering. 

Play on the LA Dodgers Runline -1.5

Alex’s Pick Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 -125

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