NBA

Premium Pick Loss

Denver Nuggets (66-32) vs Miami Heat (57-46)

Sunday, June 04, 2023 at 8:00 pm

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The Nuggets are still well rested , while the Heat  must still be feeling some exhaustion after their grueling 7 game series, with the Celtics and than immediately  leaving for the Rockies to play in the Mile High City. This is never an easy venue to play in and nothing will change tonight for a Heat side, that according to my current power rankings is over matched . Hey Im not knocking the Heat, as they are a talented hard working group, but the physical toll of play off hoops Im betting will take its toll on them vs a very fresh Denver side, that has had one game to get  the rust off, and now could easily be even  more explosive in game 2 of this series. MIAMI is 0-7 ATS  in road games when playing with 2 days rest this season. MIAMI is 0-11 ATS  after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games this season.Heat are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.

Denver is 7-0 SU/ATS L/7 in this series including 4-0 SU/ATS as hosts. 

Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Nuggets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 2 days rest.Nuggets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.

NBA Underdogs (MIAMI) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 13-38 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - in a playoff game, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 32-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a  84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver to cover

Alex’s Pick Denver Nuggets: -8.5 -105

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