St. John's Red Storm (13-6) vs Villanova Wildcats (9-10)
Friday, January 20, 2023 at 7:00 pm
Villanova already beat St. John's by 15 points this season, and while I am usually hesitant in taking teams twice ATS in a season series matchup, especially after game one was a blowout win, I still think the value is there with Nova because of its recent performances. Villanova is having a down year, there is no doubt about that, but this team is still a lot better than its current record in my opinion. Villanova's defense has forced a good amount of low-quality, tough shots for its opponents, but those opponents have cashed in on those shots at a great rate. Villanova is still one of the best fundamental teams in the nation, taking care of the basketball and owning the #1 FT % as a team in D1 hoops. The same cannot be said for St. John's, a team that struggles to get to the FT line and is only hitting its FTs as a team at a 67.9% clip (279th ranked). In a game like this where free throws could play a major role in deciding the straight-up winner as well as the against the spread winner, I would rather have the better fundamental team that is currently undervalued and has already proven to beat St. John's once. Give me the points.