Ron's Saturday MLB Team Total Winner

San Diego Padres (21-20) vs LA Dodgers (26-14)

Saturday, May 11, 2024 at 8:40 pm

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*NOTE this is a play on the first five innings team total for the San Diego Padres. James Paxton has major regression concerns with very steep expected numbers. The Padres have solid numbers vs. LHP this year with a high BB % and low K % which bodes well for them here as Paxton's BB/9 and K/9 are horrendous to start the year. Paxton has not pitched well against these Padres hitters historically as the current Padres roster has a .553 xSLG against him in 85 plate appearances. That includes three bombs by Xander Boegarts, who I like for a HR today as well. Paxton's worst splits are vs. RHP on the road and he'll have to face some tough ones today in Machado, Boegarts, Tatis, Profar, etc. Paxton's outs prop is set at 15.5 with heavy juice on the under, so the books admit it is likely he will not go past five innings. Since that's the case, I will isolate this team total over to the first five, as the Dodgers have a strong and rested bullpen and I don't think San Diego will score too much late unless the game script sets it up nicely (close game, extra innings, etc). I will personally be taking team total over 3.5 and 4.5 for the full game as well as Paxton over 2.5 earned runs, but the premium pick here is the San Diego Padres First Five Innings Team Total Over 2.5. 

Ron’s Pick San Diego Padres First Five Innings Team Total Over: 2.5 +120

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