Ron's Thursday NBA Play of the Night

Oklahoma City Thunder (62-25) vs Dallas Mavericks (54-35)

Thursday, May 09, 2024 at 9:30 pm

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I am on the under for Game 2 between the Mavs and the Thunder. This series started with an under in Game 1 and just as we did with the Nuggets vs. T-Wolves series, I expect another low-scoring contest in game two. The books have not adjusted the number at all for Game 2 as we still see the total in the 218-218.5 range. This makes sense as these were the 3rd and 7th highest-scoring teams in the league during the regular season so the majority of bettors are still expecting an offensive shootout (which is also what we saw from these teams during their regular season series). But I think we continue to see the NBA Postseason-style of defense from both teams and I think Dallas especially will be a lot more competitive defensively here. OKC shot 16-35 (45.7%) from three in Game 1 which is unsustainably high. Even at that percentage + its 21 free throws, the Thunder were only at 117 points. If the numbers regress toward the mean, we should see both teams in the low 100s in this game, and that leaves us plenty of wiggle room on the under. As long as we avoid overtime I like this Under 218.5 in Game 2. 

Ron’s Pick Under: 218.5 -110

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