Ron's NFL Sunday Value Dawg

Dallas Cowboys (0-1) vs Cincinnati Bengals (0-1)

Sunday, September 18, 2022 at 4:25 pm

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This play is solely based on value in my opinion. Should the Bengals win this game? Yes, I believe so. But is Dak Prescott's injury worth 10 points in a line move? Absolutely not. The Cowboys were originally going to be 2.5-point favorites before Dak went down with the injury and although Cooper Rush is no Dak, he is still a backup with experience and did very well in his lone start of 2021. Dallas was a 4-pt dog on the road in Minnesota last year with Cooper Rush as a starter and not only did the Boys cover the number, but they also beat the Vikings outright by four with Rush throwing for over 300 passing yards. The Cowboys' defense was solid against the Bucs last week and although there are concerns at OL for Dallas, I think the Cowboys offense will be focused and dialed into finding plays that may catch the defense sleeping. The one positive that Dallas gets with Rush is the fact that he does not have a lot of film on him as QB for the Boys so there is not a lot of material to gameplan for. We see this each and every year in pro sports betting, especially in the NFL. When a star player is out, the "next man up" mentality is powerful and usually, the line moves too many points to try and overcorrect. That is the case here, as the Cowboys are now getting too many points to pass up. Give me Dallas. 

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Ron’s Pick Dallas Cowboys: +7.5 -108

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