Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (10-8)
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 4:30 pm
The Jaguars found the miraculous comeback win over the Chargers in the Wild Card last week as Jacksonville was -5 in the turnover battle yet still went on to win the game by a point in the end. The Jags have been a great story, but I do think this story comes to an end at Arrowhead against a Chiefs team that has been dominant this season. I don't see how the Jags can make enough stops defensively to stay competitive in this game. KC's passing offense can beat most of the league's best passing defenses, but especially a Jaguars' secondary that I think is one of the weakest in the AFC. Jacksonville's run defense was great down the stretch of the regular season and in the Wild Card round, but the strength of schedule was not great. KC's two-dimensional offense is nearly impossible to stop and that was definitely the case in the first meeting between these two teams, as the Chiefs earned 486 total yards of offense compared to just 315 for Jacksonville. That was a 27-17 final score in a game where you either pushed as 10 or KC covered the number -9.5. The final score was generous to Jacksonville, as that was a one-sided game from start to finish. The Jags benefited from playing in the worst division in the NFL and got a home game against the kings of choking in the first round, but now Patrick Mahomes and one of the loudest fan bases in the NFL are in the way and I can't see the Jaguars surviving. Give me the Chiefs by double-digits here.