Boise State Broncos (3-3) vs Air Force Falcons (5-1)
Saturday, October 16, 2021 at 9:00 pm
At 9 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Air Force Falcons + the points over Boise State. Air Force is a solid 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS after winning (and covering) at home vs. Wyoming last Saturday. They'll now travel to Boise to take on a 3-3 Broncos squad. Last week, the Broncos stunned the then-undefeated BYU Cougars, 26-17, as a 6.5-point road underdog. But off that upset win, we will look for a letdown by the Broncos on Saturday. Indeed, that upset win was somewhat fortunate, given that BYU outyarded Boise, 413-312, but were doomed by four turnovers. Last season, the Broncos went into Colorado Springs, and blew out the Falcons, 49-30. Unfortunately, since 1980, .500 (or worse) teams are a soft 41% ATS off an upset win, when matched up against a revenge-minded foe off a double-digit win. Additionally, teams off upset wins, as 6-point (or greater) dogs, over unbeaten teams that were 5-0 (or better) have cashed just 42% over the last 40 years vs. .500 (or better) teams. Take the points with the Air Force. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.