BIG AL's BURNING-HOT 32-8 ATS GONZAGA/UCLA WINNER!

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Gonzaga.  I think it's safe to say that we should throw out UCLA's last four Pac-12 games (all losses) to end its conference season.  And that's because Mick Cronin's men have been a completely different animal in this tourney.  They've defeated Michigan State (86-80), BYU (73-62), Abilene Christian (67-47), Alabama (88-78) and Michigan (51-49).  But look more closely at their wins over Michigan State and Alabama, and you'll notice that both went into overtime.  In regulation, UCLA held Michigan State to 77 and Alabama to 65.  Thus, in this tournament, the Bruins have given up an average of 60 points per game in regulation.  That's impressive, in and of itself.  But then consider the teams that UCLA has faced.  Their opponents included Michigan, which ranks 9th in Ken Pomeroy's offensive efficiency rankings; BYU, which ranks 20th; and Alabama, which ranks 29th.  Yet through regulation time, UCLA held Michigan to its lowest offensive output of the season, BYU and Abilene Christian to their 2nd-lowest, and Alabama to its 5th-lowest.  Certainly, Gonzaga is another animal, altogether.  The Bulldogs rank #1 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, and have yet to lose a game.  Indeed, Gonzaga has only played one team which came within single-digits (West Virginia, 87-82).  Still, I believe the points will be valuable today.  And, for technical support, consider that NCAA Tourney favorites of more than 10 points, off back to back double-digit SU/ATS wins, are a horrible 8-32 ATS against foes seeded #15 (or better).  Finally, in the NCAA's Final Four, favorites of more than eight points have gone 1-7 ATS since 1991, with only North Carolina (-10, 83-66) covering against Syracuse in 2016.  Take the points with the Bruins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.