Ruffolo's MLB Pickoff Play 7/31/22

Premium Pick Win

Atlanta Braves (60-41) vs Arizona Diamondbacks (45-54)

Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 1:35 pm

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I get the case to be made for the Braves here and I have enoyed watching this Atlanta team pick up wins left and right. However, the Braves aren’t going to win every game and sometimes there are just spots where the value lies on the other side and this is one of those. Max Fried goes for the Braves, and while he is undoubtedly Atlanta’s staff ace, he hasn’t been at his best in his last couple of starts, giving up three runs in each. Merrill Kelly goes for the D-Backs and Kelly has emerged as the ace for Arizona, especially in the month of July, where he has a 1.57 ERA and a .175 batting average against in five starts spanning 34.1 innings. Most importantly here though, Kelly has a 7-1 record and an ERA just over three on the road, with the D-Backs going 7-2 SU and 8-1 on the run line in Kelly’s 9 road starts. Kelly’s also held some solid offenses in check in winning his last five road starts, posting a 1.74 ERA over that span. I expect the D-Backs to rally behind their ace and keep this one close if not win outright so give me Arizona +1.5 here.

Chris’s Pick Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 -108

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